MY STYLE - BLOG
With the year now ending, an interesting realisation during our trading this month is the subtle changing of the market.
If you are a swing trader, you expect that higher highs and lower lows generally indicate an uptrend or a downtrend respectively. In ideal conditions, yes, they do, but the markets are no longer ideal with "algo"rithmic programmed trading, that try to fool small time traders who use this and other similar methods.
What these algo program trends show are higher highs and lower lows together! But there is a secret, its a pattern within a larger pattern, which continues to be well behaved. The question then is judging the shape of the larger pattern which is well behaved and filtering out the noise at the micro level.
This change has made intraday trading more complex, particularly Nifty trading. Volatile indices do not suffer this symptom so much, but then these are already high risk instruments because of the volatility.
What do you do then? Several answers:
- avoid trading in the periods when the market has these characteristics.
- Fine tune your risk/money management system.
- Avoid the low risk reward trades, where rewards are nebulous, small or doubtful.
Look at price action and volume that indicates the development of a significant trend.. since the old adage, "trend is my friend: is still the most reliable way of playing these choppy markets. The challenge now is now simply being able to filter out the noise.
This is simply amazing. Traders stay quiet and smug while running on the winning trail. But the moment they fall, they get the fear of God and freeze in their tracks like statues. They will stop trading or will trade and get out with 5-10 points profit in their next trade. And see the next long winning run just pass them by.
Why does this happen? Its simple.
When you begin trading you need to have a full strategy or plan. And not trade simply on the fly.
If you do the latter, you will be counting the pebbles, and miss the bigger story completely.
Losses are part of the trading game. On December 1, all my trades were stop loss trades in the morning, but I persisted and won in the later trades, closing with a small profit net for the day.
Budget for losses and profits.If your profit target is 100% your total trading outlay should be 150% which accounts for 33% losses in your monthly profit and loss statement.
Spread this 33% across each week and calibrate your performance on that basis and not by each trade.
Get that emotion out of your mind! and trade objectively. Come to me if you still have a problem.
Abnash Singh, Am a Trader helping small traders to realize their dreams.